
THERE
ARE FIVE COMPELLING REASONS TO INVEST IN SENIOR HOUSING TODAY:
Due to the varying combinations of real estate, service programming
and facility designs, the senior housing market currently
provides cash-on-cash returns ranging from 8% to 11% free
and clear. Internal rates of return have ranged from 10% to
20%.
The significant growth in the senior population has begun
as the aging baby boomers are entering their retirement years.
The demographic growth of seniors is forecasted to affect
over 25% of the population in the United States during the
next decade, evidencing strong support for the demand for
senior housing.
The demand for senior housing is not
only secular, that is driven by demographics, but it is also
(with the exception of active adult communities) need-influenced or need-driven,
that is, not discretionary and required by the chronic care
issues of aging. It is hard to make the same objective case for growing demand for office, retail and industrial properties.
Demand for senior housing is also
much less impacted by "technology risk". This very
real risk will impact retail, commercial, and industrial property
types to a much greater extent over the foreseeable future,
and cause the investment analysis to be much less certain
with regard to understanding and measuring demand.
Like all property types, senior housing has its own business
cycle. Demand for
senior housing is much less affected
by the rise and fall in employment and the expansion and contraction
of GNP. Today's seniors are better equipped financially to
live out their senior years with the support of retirement
plans, stock portfolios, insurance benefits and 401K programs. Seniors that move to these properties are not employed.
While demand is moderately impacted
by severe inflation and an inability to sell residential real
estate, social security payments received by seniors and the
need-driven element of the product are two substantial cushions
to the traditional economic dislocations that affect yearly
demand for other property types. The business cycle for senior
housing is almost exclusively dependent upon the supply and
demand of capital and for the various product types.
For the seniors' apartment, independent, CCRC, and dementia
units, demand exceeds supply in most markets
nationwide.
Even
in markets that have reached temporary saturation for assisted
living, many of the national operators have maintained 88%
occupancy rates or better. There is considerable evidence
that the more sophisticated companies with newer properties
are taking market share from the smaller, older properties.
There is a strong argument that adding independent living
properties to a multi-family portfolio will decrease risk for a
given level of return or increases return for a given level of risk, since these
assets are not highly correlated.
The industry's high fixed-cost structure, which can create
problems where there is a large drop in occupancy, also provides
significant, value-added opportunities. Small additions to
a property can create significant increases to net operating
income and produce leveraged internal rates of return well
over 30% with little additional risk to the property. For
example, an existing 100-unit independent living property that
adds a 30-unit assisted living wing has very little fixed or variable
operating expense other than incremental nurse's aide wages,
utilities and food. Due to the extremely high revenue per
unit (unlike apartments), there is a significant increase
to net operating income.
In this specific example, NOI can
increase by $500,000 per year on an additional equity investment
of $2,500,000 above the equity investment in the property,
producing a doubling in the value of the additional equity
investment at an 11% capitalization rate.
Unlike the other property types which have several national
information reporting and data tracking services at both the
national and local market levels, senior housing has been
slow to develop these efforts. There are few, if any, companies
or consultants other than NIC seeking to understand the true
interrelationships of the key drivers of supply and demand
and their impact on investment performance.
KMF sees a very real opportunity to
outperform the returns experienced in the industry by capitalizing
on this information inefficiency.
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